Preliminary results show that the voting deals in Lebanon are a blow to Hezbollah

BEIRUT (Reuters) – The Iran-backed Hezbollah was dealt a blow in Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, with preliminary results showing losses for some of its oldest allies and the pro-Saudi Lebanese Forces party posting big gains.

With votes still being counted, final results are yet to come out for the first elections since Lebanon’s devastating economic collapse and the massive explosion at the port in 2020 that shattered Beirut.

The heavily armed Shi’ite group Hezbollah and its allies won 71 of 128 seats in parliament when Lebanon last voted in 2018, but whether they can hold on to a majority depends on results that are yet to be finalized – including the Sunni Muslim seats.

The announced findings suggest a parliament more divided and sharply polarized between Hezbollah’s allies and opponents, an outcome analysts said could lead to a dead end as the factions reach a power-sharing deal over top positions in the state.

“If the deals of the past are dead, what kind of politics do we have other than more sectarian tensions and a replay of some of the clashes we’ve seen?” Muhannad Haj Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said.

While the 2018 vote has pushed Lebanon deeper into the orbit of Shiite-led Iran, this outcome could open the door for Sunni-led Saudi Arabia to wield greater influence in a country that has long been its arena of rivalry with Tehran. , he added.

In one of the most stunning upheavals, Druze politician allied with Hezbollah Talal Arslan, a scion of one of Lebanon’s oldest political dynasties who was first elected in 1992, lost his seat to Mark Daou, a newcomer with a reformist agenda, according to the latter. Campaign manager and Hezbollah official.

Preliminary results also indicated victories for at least five other independents who campaigned to reform and hold politicians to account accused of steering Lebanon into the worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.

“Big Blow”

The gains reported by the Lebanese Forces (LF), which are staunchly opposed to Hezbollah, mean they will overtake the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement as the largest Christian party in parliament.

Its head of press office, Antoinette Geagea, said the Lebanese army gained at least 20 seats, up from 15 in 2018.

Sayed Younes, head of his electoral body, told Reuters that the Free Patriotic Movement won as many as 16 seats, down from 18 in 2018.

The Free Patriotic Movement is the largest Christian party in parliament since its founder, President Michel Aoun, returned from exile in 2005 in France. Aoun and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea were rivals in the civil war.

The Lebanese Armed Forces, which was established as a militia during the 15-year Lebanese civil war, has repeatedly called on Hezbollah to give up its arsenal.

“Hezbollah’s Christian allies have lost the claim to represent the majority of Christians,” Hajj Ali said, calling it a “huge blow” to the Shiite group’s claims of cross-sectarian support for its powerful arsenal.

Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, maintained their hegemony over the Shiite representation of Muslims, winning all the seats allocated to their sect, according to preliminary figures from the two parties.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah’s allies secured vacant seats after the withdrawal of prominent Sunni politician Saad Hariri, particularly in Beirut and northern Lebanon.

The next parliament must elect a speaker – a position Berri has held since 1992 – before nominating a prime minister to form a government. Later this year, lawmakers are set to elect a president to replace Aoun, whose term ends on October 31.

Any delay in government formation – a process that could take months – would further delay reforms needed to tackle the economic crisis and unleash support from the International Monetary Fund and donor countries.

An opposition candidate also achieved a breakthrough in an area in southern Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah.

Two Hezbollah officials said Elias Jaradi, an ophthalmologist, won an Orthodox Christian seat formerly held by Asaad Hardan of the Syrian National Socialist Party, a close Hezbollah ally and member of parliament since 1992.

Jaradi told Reuters it is a new beginning for the south and for Lebanon as a whole.

Nadim Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, said the results of 14 or 15 seats would determine the majority.

“You will have two opposing blocs – Hezbollah and its allies on one side, and the Lebanese Forces and its allies on the other, and in the middle will enter these new voices,” he said.

(Coverage) Laila Bassam, Taymour Azhari, Maya Gebaili and Tom Perry. Additional reporting by Lina Najm. Written by Tom Perry and Maya Jebeli; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Ed Osmond

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