Russia will prepare to mobilize another 500,000 men

Ukraine believes the recruits were part of a series of Russian offensives in the east and south of the country in the spring and summer, according to Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, according to The Guardian.

Russia has denied it is preparing a second wave of mobilization, with Putin last month saying there was “no point” in talking about a new arms call, adding that only half of those already mobilized had been sent to Ukraine. News.ro.

Russian officials, including Putin, denied plans to order demobilization in September, before declaring it a “partial demobilization.”

Ukraine’s warning of further mobilization comes as Russia says it is sticking to an old-fashioned unilateral Christmas ceasefire.

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The Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday that troops began respecting the ceasefire “on the entire front line” from noon Moscow time. However, a fire station in Ukrainian-controlled Kherson was bombed, killing one firefighter and injuring four others, according to the Kherson regional administration.

Meanwhile, fighting appears to have continued along the line of contact in eastern Donetsk region.

Reuters reported, citing witnesses in the Russian-held regional capital Donetsk, that artillery fire was fired from Russian positions on the outskirts of the city after a ceasefire was thought to be in effect. Russian news agency Tass said Ukrainian forces launched a shelling attack on the city at noon.

Denis Bushilin, the Russian leader based in Donetsk, said Thursday evening that Putin’s order only referred to offensive operations and that his forces would retaliate if shots were fired.

Hours before the announced ceasefire, Russian missiles hit a residential building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, damaging 14 homes and causing no casualties, the mayor said.

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Ukrainians’ estimates of the troop mobilization are higher than they were in September, a move unpopular in Russia and sparking protests.

If the estimates prove correct, Russia will double its pre-war forces within months. Ukrainian military intelligence says 280,000 Russian infantry troops are currently deployed against Ukraine.

Over the summer, Ukraine’s head of national security, Oleksiy Danilov, said a million Ukrainians are gaining combat experience, although only a small fraction are during military service.

Skibitsky said that it would take Russia two months to organize troops and that Russian success on the battlefield would depend on how well armed and trained the Russians were. He added that it depends on the continued supply of Western ammunition and weapons to Ukraine to equip the new reserve units being produced by Ukraine.

“If Russia loses this time, Putin will collapse,” Skibitsky said, describing the next six to eight months as the last push.

He said Ukraine expects the mobilization wave to be announced on January 15, after the winter holiday period in Russia. “They are stressing the number of people and equipment, and I believe they will overwhelm us,” he said.

A retired Russian colonel denies it

Andrei Kuruliov, a retired Russian colonel and member of the Duma, said on Wednesday that there were “no reasons or conditions” for Moscow to announce a second mobilization in the next six months.

“Not everyone who was previously mobilized was sent to war,” Kuruliov told Russian media, referring to the tens of thousands of recruits in training.

Contrary to the official discourse, several influential nationalist pro-war bloggers in recent months have said Russia has no choice but to announce a new mobilization soon.

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Igor Strelkov, a Russian ultra-nationalist commentator and former intelligence official, predicted that Moscow would announce a mobilization next month.

“There will be a second wave of mobilization. We will be forced to complete the second and perhaps the third wave. To win in Ukraine, we need to call at least half a million soldiers to arms,” ​​Strelkov said, adding that the new mobilization will take place at the end of February, on the anniversary of the start of the war.

“We expect them to launch attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, maybe in Zaporozhye, but defend themselves in Kherson and Crimea. That’s the number of people they need for such a mission,” Skibitsky said, explaining why he expects to mobilize half a million people.

In December, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and Army Chief Valery Zalushny said Russia would launch another offensive from Belarus in February. Conversely, Ukrainian military intelligence says the likelihood of an attack from Belarus is low.

According to Skibitsky, there is only one unit in Russia – about 15,000 people – in Belarus. Last February, he had 45,000 men and could not take Kiev, despite Ukraine’s readiness, he said.

Now, Ukraine’s northern defensive positions are strong and Ukraine is ready, Skibitsky said. The Guardian spent New Year’s Eve on the border of northeastern Ukraine’s Sumy region, where local security forces expressed a similar sentiment.

“Of course, this could change if Belarus joins the war,” Skibitsky said. Belarus has about 45,000 soldiers.

However, US military expert Rob Lee says that even if Russia is good in numbers, that doesn’t automatically mean its units will be effective – leadership, ammunition and training are the problems in the Russian military right now.

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With no comparable recent war, it remains to be seen how well Russia can integrate the newly mobilized forces, Lee argued.

“These problems don’t go away if you mobilize 500,000 men, only with more manpower you have the same problems,” Lee said, noting that less-trained troops are better at defending territory than offensive operations.

To compensate for the heavy losses of the ten-month war, Russia also conscripted tens of thousands of prisoners to fight as part of Wagner’s mercenary corps. On Thursday, the first prisoners recruited by Wagner were pardoned after six months of fighting in Ukraine.

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