The problems in the Balkans and the indifference of the West

Financial Times analysis, via Euro2Day/Rador:

NATO and the European Union are trying to ease rising tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, but deep-rooted problems remain. Russian threat and internal conflicts.

Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, and Western Balkan issues in general, returned to the forefront during this period. How serious is the threat to European stability and how dangerous is Russia’s intervention in the region?

As Misha Glenny says, there is no sympathy between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Fortunately, NATO and the European Union brought the two leaders to Brussels last week to stress the need to defuse tensions that erupted in early August.

But as Misha rightly observes, the region is neglected by the West and risks becoming “an asset” in Moscow’s hands, notes Dimitar Bechev, another top expert on the Balkans.

In particular, while the rest of Central and Eastern Europe (without Belarus, Moldova or Ukraine) joined the EU between 2004 and 2013, most Balkan states are no closer than they were when they received the promise of integration two years ago.

That’s what some political leaders in Western Europe want, though they don’t want to say it out loud. If French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan for a “European political community” is implemented, the EU door could be closed for good on the Balkans.

But the tendency to blame Western governments for the region’s problems misses the point, namely that many of these problems are internally generated. And while political elites in the Balkans say they want to join the EU and adopt its governance standards, I often wonder how few actually have other concerns. For example, corruption, organized crime, a politicized judiciary and a weak independent press are common in the region. Like Poland and Hungary, do political elites in the Balkans really want the EU to pressure them to change their ways?

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Drawing conclusions from the modern history of the Balkans – a history marked by conflicts between young and fragile states – some of these elites believe that the tougher rules accompanying EU membership could threaten their grip on power. This may reduce the already limited independence of their countries in the international arena.

Take the example of Serbia. Peter Petkovic, the Serbian government’s point man on Kosovo issues, told the Financial Times that the country “has an independent national security policy of balanced cooperation with both the East and the West”.

Don’t you think there are echoes of the views of Josip Broz Tito, former communist leader of Yugoslavia and leader of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War? I think they might ask. Indeed, other Balkan states are less interested than Serbia in using the EU and the US against Russia and China. But some people have different — but equally slippery — problems. For example, many Kosovar politicians, including Kurdi, are toying with the idea of ​​promoting the unification of their country – which has an ethnic Albanian majority and a Serbian minority – with Albania. Such a “Greater Albania” could also include parts of northern Macedonia with an Albanian population.

I can think of no better recipe for disaster in the Balkans than a Bosnian-Serb attempt to destroy the Dayton Peace Agreement in Bosnia-Herzegovina so that all Serbs can remain in Serbia.

Changing borders in the Balkans is a terrible idea and would set a “palatable” precedent for Russia, which wants to do the same in Ukraine, having already annexed Crimea in 2014.

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Aren’t the interests of their people better served if Balkan leaders focus on the region’s long-term economic and social problems, exacerbated by the pandemic in Ukraine and Russia’s occupation? The economic challenges are illustrated in charts produced by Brookings for the World Bank showing the gaps between Western Balkan and EU countries.

The Kosovo-Serbia dispute is one of many reasons why the two countries will not join the European Union in the future. The people of Kosovo know this and therefore support the seemingly achievable goal of visa-free entry into EU countries.

The European Commission supports the move, but some Western European governments oppose it, citing concerns about the rule of law and organized crime.

As travel restrictions remain in place, Kosovo authorities may lose interest in the legal, administrative and economic reforms needed to secure any chance of joining the EU.

But Kosovo will never join the European Union until it recognizes its independence from Serbia, declared in 2008, among five of its 27 states – Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain. Their opposition stems from regional and ethnic conflicts in their own countries. : the de facto division of Cyprus with a Turkish zone, the Hungarians in Romania and Slovakia, and the Catalan separatist movement in Spain. For these five states, Kosovo’s secession from Serbia appears to be a problematic precedent.

An agreement between Serbia and Kosovo could resolve the issue. But as last week’s talks in Brussels showed, such progress is far from over. (Radar Translation: Carolina Siulu)

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