Most Asian markets are rising as Tokyo stocks continue to rise, and China leaves loan rates unchanged

Ashish Agrawal, Head of Asia Forex and Emerging Markets Macro Strategy Research at Barclays, said that China’s recovery should reduce some of the exclusivity of the US dollar, which leads to a weaker US dollar.

“This improvement in growth in China — should basically help kind of rebalance global growth, reduce a little bit the angle of dollar exclusivity, and kind of help or advance our view of dollar weakness in the medium term,” Agrawal said. On CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.

The latest official data showed that China’s economy grew faster-than-expected by 4.5% year-on-year in the three months through March, the first quarter since China exited its harsh coronavirus policy in December.

But Agrawal said the Chinese yuan could weaken further throughout the year.

“This complete improvement in China will also come on the back of a slightly deteriorating overseas sector,” Agrawal said. Customs data showed that exports in April grew at a slower pace compared to 14.8% in March.

“The current account surplus will be smaller, and outflows and some portfolio inflows will rebound — which we and many thought would take some time. So we’ve cut the dollar in China throughout the year, but we’ve had it declining more slowly, especially with the dollar trading in general,” he added. .

The onshore Chinese yuan fell 0.27% to 7.02 against the US dollar on Monday afternoon.

– Sheila Chiang

HSBC economists pushed back their forecasts for the Bank of Japan’s policy changes to the third quarter of this year.

Citing “weak market pressures and a focus on continued wage increases,” HSBC said in a note on Friday that it now expects the central bank to widen the yield curve control trading band to 100 basis points above and below 0% for the Japanese government for 10 years. Bonds in the third quarter of this year.

HSBC had previously expected the Bank of Japan to widen its YCC range to 75 basis points in June.

“Given the moderation in market pressures, our baseline forecast is also for a policy change by the Bank of Japan,” they wrote, adding that the revised outlook reflects “coming larger and bolder changes, provided that a price stability target is in sight.”

They added that by the third quarter of this year, the Japanese economy will see data that “increasingly support the realization of conditions for the start of the normalization process.”

– Jihe Lee

Thai stocks have been the worst performers in Southeast Asia this year, but UBS says Thailand is its “top pick” in the region. Thailand’s SET fell 0.5% Monday afternoon and is down more than 9% this year.

Kelvin Tai of UBS Global Wealth Management told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that Thailand would be a “big beneficiary” from boosting tourism from China once China’s labor numbers increase.

However, he said that elections in Thailand are a “potential game-changer,” and companies associated with the monarchy could be set back by a change of government.

– Audrey Wan

Australia’s Trade and Tourism Minister hopes for a “positive decision” soon on China’s removal of tariffs on Australian barley imports.

“We’re hoping for a positive decision regarding the tariffs on Australian barley in China,” Don Ferrell told CNBC in an interview Monday.

Ferrell was in China earlier in May, becoming the second Australian minister in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s administration to visit China after Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited Beijing in December.

Australia agreed in April to temporarily suspend a World Trade Organization complaint against China over its 2020 decision to impose an 80.5% tariff on Australian barley at the height of diplomatic tensions.

“We seek to stabilize our relationship with China,” Farrell said. “We believe that the best way to achieve peace in our common region is through reasonable trade rules that regulate commercial operations between our two countries.”

Ferrell also said his Chinese counterpart, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, had accepted his invitation to visit Australia, without giving further details.

– Clement Tan

Shares of Chinese chipmakers soared after the China Cyberspace Administration said it would ban major infrastructure operators from buying products from US memory maker Micron.

Hong Kong-listed Hua Hong Semiconductor rose 3.14% on Monday, while SMIC rose 2.64%.

Other memory chip producers in mainland China such as GigaDevice Semiconductor and Ingenic Semiconductor also saw gains of 3.74% and 8.08%, respectively.

The China Cyberspace Administration explained that Micron products had failed a network security review, citing “potentially serious network security issues”.

The Cyberspace Administration did not specify which products would be banned or what security issues Micron products had with their release.

– Lim Hwi Ji

The China Cyberspace Administration has banned operators of China’s “critical information infrastructure” from purchasing products from US memory manufacturer Micron.

This comes as a file The Cyberspace Administration of China said that Micron products had failed a network security review, citing “potentially serious network security issues”.

This, she added, “poses a significant security risk to China’s critical information infrastructure supply chain and affects [its] National Security.”

The Cyberspace Administration did not specify which products would be banned or what security issues Micron products had with their release.

Shares of Micron’s South Korean rivals rose Monday morning after the announcement, with SK Hynix up 1.54% and Samsung Electronics up 0.5%.

– Lim Hwi Ji

the People’s Bank of China Benchmark lending rates were left unchanged for the ninth consecutive month.

China left the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.65% and the five-year loan prime rate unchanged at 4.30%, in line with expectations of economists polled by Reuters.

The Chinese inland yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0205 against the US dollar.

– Jihe Lee

The Korea Customs Agency said exports from South Korea fell 16.1% in the first 20 days of May compared with the same period a year ago.

Imports in the same period also decreased by 15.3% year on year.

The value of exports for the first 20 days was $32.4 billion, and imports were $36.7 billion, leaving a deficit of $4.3 billion for the May 1-20 period.

Refinitiv data showed that South Korea’s exports have fallen for seven straight months, with April posting a 14.3% year-on-year decline.

– Lim Hwi Ji

Japan’s core machinery orders fell 3.9% in March from the previous month, falling more than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the reading to rise by 0.7% on a monthly basis.

Compared to last year, orders for machines also decreased by 3.5%, against expectations for a print increase of 1.4%.

Japanese machinery orders rose 9.8% year-on-year in February.

– Jihe Lee

In an era defined by the need to tackle climate change, electric vehicles (EVs) are seen as an increasingly important part of the solution.

For Philip Reibmann, portfolio manager at Storebrand Asset Management, one global electric car maker stands out: China’s BYD — not Elon Musk’s Tesla.

As an investor, Rebman said BYD’s appeal goes beyond just making electric vehicles.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read why the fund manager is optimistic about BYD here.

– Ganesh Rao

Federal leaders are expected to continue negotiations on the US debt ceiling on Monday as the country approaches a default.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., are scheduled to meet in person at the White House.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that “hard choices” will have to be made about which notes won’t be repaid if the debt ceiling is not raised, and reiterated her warning that the US could default on its debt as early as June 1,

– Jesse Pound, Ashley Cabot

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that interest rates may not have to rise as much as previously thought in part because of pressures seen in the banking sector.

He said as part of a committee on monetary policy.

“As a result, our policy rate may not need to go up as much as it would have to achieve our goals,” he added. Of course, the extent of that is highly uncertain.

– Jeff Cox

New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams said the long-term trend in interest rates is likely to be lower, despite recent increases in an effort to combat inflation.

In a largely academic debate during a forum in Washington, D.C., Williams said the “normal” interest rate remains on the downward trend as prospects for economic output are muted. This is despite higher pandemic-era inflation and increases in interest rates to combat price hikes.

“Importantly, there is no evidence that the era of ultra-low natural interest rates is over,” Williams said.

– Jeff Cox