The danger was evident at the Defense 24 Days defense exhibition in Poland this week: “It has already been decided that the Baltic states will be attacked once Ukraine is defeated,” says military historian Philip Peterson. New World Generation of Warfare, Washington, DC (USA).
Estonia’s Chief of Staff, Martin Herem, added: “Russia can use conventional force against us. There is no point in scaring it or convincing it not to attack. Russia has the weapons, ammunition and soldiers to attack NATO, says Estonian general: “Even after two years of war in Ukraine.”
Even former Polish general Waldemar Skripczak warns: “It’s not a question of if Russia will attack us, but when and where.”
Ukraine is currently a “testing ground for Russian weapons and tactics,” said Lt. Gen. Marek Tomaszicki, commander of the Polish Armed Forces. After that, there could be “war between Russia and Belarus on the one hand, and between Poland and its allies on the other.”
Justin Frank of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute says that in the event of a Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, Russian soldiers “should be killed in large numbers.”
NATO has only one solution to this: our “air superiority”. Bronk explains: “The prospect of protracted war will not deter Putin’s Russia. In Ukraine, they have lost 450,000 people, dead and wounded, and they continue to advance.”
Instead, the Russian army invading the Baltic states would have to be “shocked” by massive airstrikes, with the Kremlin ordering its troops to withdraw hours or days later. Modern fighter jets like the F-35 and cruise missiles like the Taurus, Tomahawk or Storm Shadow are the best option for this.
But at present, only the United States has sufficient capabilities. The three countries in Europe that could theoretically do so in two or three years are currently making no attempt to achieve such massive air superiority, warns Frank.
A statement that the head of the Estonian Armed Forces, Martin Heremum, insists. His words of warning: “We are not ready for war with Russia. Neither Estonia nor NATO!”
That’s why he calls for additional spending: “Five percent of GDP over the next two years should be massively restructured for the defense of all NATO countries. After that, the share could be reduced to three percent.”
Germany had 1.7 percent of defense spending in 2023, while Estonia had 2.7 percent.
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