Russian forces are currently conducting small-scale offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Kharkiv region (northeastern Ukraine) and continue to make “significant tactical territorial gains” in areas where Ukrainian defenses have weakened. However, the number of Russian units involved in these attacks is low, suggesting that Moscow does not intend to launch a large-scale offensive operation to encircle, encircle, or capture the city of Kharkiv. A recent analysis by the Institute for War Studies says. At the same time, the Ukrainian army declared victory “Stopping” the Russian Attack In the Kharkiv region, though, fighting continues.
“Russian forces will call up combat reserves in an effort to intensify offensive operations in the region in the coming days, but Russian forces do not have sufficient forces for a large-scale offensive operation to encircle, encircle, or capture the city of Kharkiv. According to current information,” the ISW analysis said.
NEW: Russian forces are conducting relatively limited offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the northern Kharkiv region. 🧵(1/6) pic.twitter.com/D9x2yB5J92
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 12, 2024
A Ukrainian military spokesman said the Russian advance on Kharkiv had “ceased” on May 11 and that the Russians had made no further territorial advances.
“The enemy is stable in the gray area and is not moving,” said Nasser Volosyn, a spokesman for the group of Ukrainian forces in the region.
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According to Ukrainian sources cited by ISW, the Russians engaged two companies of the 7th Motorized Infantry Brigade and two battalions of the 18th Motorized Infantry Brigade – part of the 11th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District – in the Kharkov offensive.
Additionally, elements of the 30th Motorized Infantry Division (part of the 72nd Motorized Infantry Division, 44th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District – DML) and the 128th Motorized Infantry Division (44th Corps/DML) also operated in the area.
In total, Ukrainian sources estimate that the Russians have 2,000 troops stationed on the front lines and another 1,500-2,000 in reserve.
In the region, the Russians could bring in another 3,750 troops over the next week.
In total, the “Northern” forces of the Russian army number 30,000 – 35,000 soldiers, stationed on the Russian-Ukrainian border in the regions of Kursk, Priyansk and Belgorod.
Major General Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, estimated that the Russians were trying to concentrate between 50-75,000 soldiers.
Since the start of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv, the Ukrainians claim to have destroyed at least 20 Russian tanks. ISW assesses that Russia’s offensive operations in the Kharkiv region are intended to draw Ukrainian forces from other parts of the front and allow Russian forces to advance to bring the city of Kharkiv within range of Moscow’s artillery.
Author: Mihnia Lazar
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