Analysis Shares of the crisis in Ukraine. Neither Pitano nor Putin can lose a clash

In the case of Ukraine, the intensity of the psychological war between the United States and Russia is rapidly approaching a point where a peaceful exit from a crisis with vast changes is unlikely, an analysis shows. CNN.

US President Joe Biden, backed by the full identity of the Western Alliance, is embroiled in a confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is using Ukraine as a hostage to try to force the United States to reconsider the established consequences of the Cold War. No one is silent. Given the huge political stakes they both bet on, it may not be possible to do so.

The world’s first two nuclear powers have been battling the most tense test of will since the fall of the Soviet Union. The Russian invasion of Ukraine would provoke the greatest conflict of ordinary conventional forces in Europe since World War II. Americans are at risk for the credibility of the West, perceptions of global American power and the potential for secondary consequences – for example, the crisis of rising energy prices.

To alleviate the situation, US Secretary of State Anthony Blingen and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Geneva on Friday.

But at the beginning of the meeting, Lavrov told Blingen that Moscow did not “expect progress” from these talks, but expected “responses to its proposals.”

The United States is refusing to accept Putin’s demands, which would seriously compromise NATO. US threats of unprecedented sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine and attempts to give Putin a way out have not worked. On the contrary, the Kiev government says Russia has almost finished building forces that will allow large-scale invasion.

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The Kremlin leader, who has 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, has kept the world waiting with his usual technique of not balancing his enemies.

Some analysts believe that the Russian leader is foolish and that he created the threat of an invasion in order to be on an equal footing with the United States. Others see it as an attempt to destabilize Ukraine or a program to increase its popularity in the country.

But Putin can feel the weakness in the United States and the split in Europe, and if he wants to destroy Ukraine’s hope for a pro-Western future, he sees that now is the time.

“The only thing I can believe is that this decision is completely, exclusively, Putin’s,” Biden told a White House news conference.

“It simply came to our notice then. No one else will affect that decision. He makes that decision, ” he said.

Ukraine is very important to the Russian leader. For the former KGB official, the demise of the Soviet Union was a historic disaster. He explained that the expansion of the eastern part of NATO was a disgrace to a great civilization. Ensuring that Ukraine will never join NATO and calling for the withdrawal of Western troops and weapons from former Warsaw Pact countries such as Poland and Romania – explains why it has demanded concessions that Pita could never accept. .

Over the past decade, Putin has sought to re-establish Russia’s old influence over former Soviet countries such as Ukraine. As a result of this plan, Crimea, a sovereign territory of Ukraine, was annexed in 2014. Putin also supported the suppression of political protests in Belarus and Kazakhstan. As for its own dictatorship, it is clear that a prosperous, prosperous, Western democracy in Ukraine is intolerable: it is an example to the Russians, tired of its long rule, corruption and oppression.

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Another role for Putin is to tarnish the image of the West, especially the United States. This is where his efforts to influence the US election come into play. Presidential candidate Donald Trump, who is running for president, is now leading the attack on American democracy, which is in line with Putin’s goals. Biden is weakening domestically as Trump confirms he is seen by millions of citizens as an illegal president. Putin could never have expected such a decision.

On the other hand, Joe Biden has spent weeks uniting Western allies trying to separate Putin in order to accept the set of sanctions that will effectively separate Russia from the Western economy. That’s why Biden’s comments at a news conference on Wednesday were so damaging that he acknowledged that not all Western leaders agree.

But it is true. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, called on a European channel for Putin this week, which gave the Russian president a divisive opportunity to exploit.

One of the most interesting aspects of the US approach to the crisis in Ukraine is the US’s cautious rhetoric about the immediate invasion and the leak of information about the accumulation of Russian troops. It is difficult to say whether the administration will provide political coverage to show that it is not surprising if Russian tanks cross the border.

Washington may step up its threat to force Europeans to agree to sanctions. For example, the United States has long disagreed with Germany over the Nortstream 2 pipeline, which was built to carry Russian gas to Western Europe. The new government in Berlin has now signaled that it will cut off gas flow if Russia invades Ukraine.

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At times, however, the United States seems to have almost instigated Putin to capture reports of a possible invasion – including Biden on Wednesday. Such a tactic could increase the pressure on the Russian leader, but it is a big risk.

Author: MB

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