Dow futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.
The stock market made modest progress last week, with some big gains and reversals. Recession fears are on the rise, even as inflation slows.
There wasn’t a lot of buying opportunity. Some stocks flashed buy signals, and then quickly fell back. Investors should be careful about adding exposure in the current environment. amid market fluctuations, apple (AAPL), Lululemon Athletica (Lulu) And Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (regen) they formulated bullish narrowing patterns.
Earnings season is heating up. Tesla (TSLA), ASML (ASML), Netflix (NFLX) and DHI stocks are all close to buy points with earnings on click. ASML and Dr. Horton (DHI) provided insight into their groups.
while, Western Alliance Bank (WAL) are among several banks and financial institutions that will report next week. How does this Phoenix-based bank hold up? WAL stock has been among the most beleaguered stocks in recent weeks.
Dow jones futures today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Stock market rise
The stock market rally posted modest gains for the week, despite daily volatility.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2% in trading last week. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.3%. Small cap Russell 2000 rose 1.5% in an internal week.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points, to 3.52%.
US crude oil futures rose 2.3 percent to $82.52 a barrel last week.
Exchange Traded Funds
Among the ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (fifty(gained 2.65% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF)fit) an advance of 1.9%. iShares Expanded Technology and Software ETF (IGV) gained 0.5%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor Corporation (SMH) fell 0.1% after falling 4.1% in the previous week. ASML stock is a large SMH property.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETFs (XME) advanced 2% last week. Global Infrastructure Development Fund X US (cradle) increased by 2.7%. US Global Gates Foundation ETF (Planes) sank 1.1%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) jumped 4.1%. Energy Defined Fund SPDR ETF (xle) increased by 2.65%. SPDR Health Care Sector Selection Fund (XLV) added 0.8%.
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Apple stock, lululemon
Stocks of Apple, Lululemon, and Regeneron have all carved out tight patterns, but in different circumstances.
Apple stock rose 0.3% to 165.21 last week, bouncing back from the 21-day line on Thursday. Shares fell 0.15% in the previous week. With two consecutive weekly closes of 1%-1.5% over the previous week, that’s a tight three week. The buy point of AAPL stock is 166.94. This will be a bit of a stretch from a flat base that was cleared a month ago, but could provide a place for the current owners to add a few more shares.
LULU stock rose 1.1% to 368.25, also causing distress for three weeks with a buy point of 371.36. The yoga apparel retailer quickly rebounded after a profit gap. Tight Lululemon for 3 weeks inside a cup base. In fact, on the daily chart, the narrowing pattern acts as a handle. So investors can use the breakout as a place to start a position. Ideally, LULU stock would deliver more of a jolt first.
REGN rose 0.1% to 829.33, now flaunting a tight four-week pattern with an entry of 837.65. The biotech giant remains in a buying range to break through the flat base of 800.58. Investors can use the narrow entry breakout move as a place to start or add to a Regeneron stock position.
Tesla’s first-quarter earnings are due Wednesday evening. The electric vehicle giant announced record deliveries for the first quarter of this month, thanks to deep price cuts and new American electric vehicle credits. However, the deliveries did not live up to the viewership, as the production again greatly outsold.
Now investors will see how that affects Tesla’s prized profit margins, which had already started to fall last year.
On Friday, Tesla cut prices in Europe, Singapore and Israel, though the European cuts largely absorbed the discounts in early March. A week ago, Tesla lowered US prices on all of its cars. That points to more margin pressure in the second quarter.
Tesla stock fell 6 cents to 185 last week after falling 10.8% in the previous week. The stocks hit resistance at the 21-day and 50-day lines. TSLA stock has a cup-and-handle base that formed below the 200-day moving average, which isn’t great. So while Tesla has 207.89 buy points, investors may wait for a decisive move above 200 days, which is now below 213.
Another possibility is if Tesla stock crosses the 50-day line on earnings, providing an early entry with a small 200-day headroom.
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Netflix earnings due Tuesday night. After a tough 2022, profits are expected to pick up again. Subscription earnings are often more important than Netflix earnings. Results will also be important to broadcast competitors like Disney (dis), Beside Rocco (ROKU).
After more than doubling from July to early February, Netflix stock formed a new cup-by-handle bottom with 349.90 buy points. The handle formed with minimal volume and support at the 50-day line. NFLX stock fell 0.2% for the week, to 338.63.
The ASML stock report will be released early Wednesday morning, along with the peers L Research (LRCX) is due after closing. ASML earnings are also on the rise again in 2023 after a tough 2022. After nearly doubling from October to early February, ASML stock has formed a base of a cup with handle, according to MarketSmith analysis. Shares rose 1.4% to 666.20 last week, bouncing back from the 50-day line. The buy point is 683.28.
Dr. Horton’s earnings
DR Horton’s earnings are due early Thursday, and results will roll in for the homebuilders, many of which are in or near their buying areas. The homebuilding giant is expected to post significant declines in EPS, like other competitors. Direction will be key. DHI rose 2.7% to 98.25. On Tuesday, the shares reclaimed the 99.50 cup handle buy point, but then fell back.
Western Alliance Bancorp earnings
Western coalition reports early Wednesday. The California-based bank has already provided some key metrics for the first quarter, including deposits and unrealized losses. But investors will want to know current conditions. WAL stock rose 2.9% to 31.66 last week, but it’s still down sharply in 2023. As Warren Buffett said Wednesday, bank deposits are likely to be safe, but it’s not clear whether bank stocks will be.
Altogether, they will provide a good picture of deposit and lending trends.
Market rally analysis
The stock market rally didn’t have big weekly moves, but there were big daily and intraday fluctuations. Major indices saw significant gains on Thursday, bracketed by bearish reversals on Wednesday and Friday.
In fact, the Nasdaq Composite has been down every day except Thursday, and it’s still posting weekly gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit two-month highs on Friday before falling, with the Dow Jones rising for the fourth week in a row.
Major indices are not far from their 2023 highs, but they are not far from undermining the 50-day lines either.
Meanwhile, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which does not give more weight to huge pressures such as Apple or Tesla stocks, climbed from the 200-day line, but encountered resistance several times in the 50-day period.
Over the past week, markets have become more concerned about recession risks, especially on Wednesday news that Fed staffers expected a “moderate recession” at their March policy meeting. But despite these concerns, and generally improving inflation data, the odds of a May rate hike rose to 80% on Friday.
A recession and a Fed rate hike aren’t a great combination for stocks. So the market rally showed last week’s resilience. And despite the volatility, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 modeled de facto tight 3-week patterns, with their recent ranges, like LULU stock.
Market breadth has improved somewhat in the past two weeks. But there weren’t many stocks flashing buy signals. Downward market reversals mean that some stocks that looked doable have fizzled out or reversed quickly.
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What are you doing now
How exposed should investors be? It depends on the shares you own. Some stocks flashing buy signals in the past few weeks have performed well, while others have been mixed or reversed lower.
Volatile market volatility has made it difficult to add stocks recently. So it’s probably a good thing that buying opportunities are relatively rare in Thursday’s big rebound.
The macroeconomic picture is still in flux and earnings season will ramp up over the next few weeks. So there is likely to be more volatility in the cards.
If the market is showing some strength, and stock buying signals are fast, add exposure gradually. Be prepared to take partial profits and exit losers. Remember: if you are quick to add exposure, you must be ready to scale just as quickly.
Finding early entry points and buying near these buy points is still a smart strategy. So spend the weekend turning on the screens and making your watchlists.
Read the big picture every day to stay in sync with market trend, leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @employee For stock market updates and more.
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