Putin’s soldiers are pouring into Belarus. What plans does Lukashenko have, and what does the head of his secret services predict?

Alexander Lukashenko has ordered his forces to be tested on “combat readiness” amid reports that Russian soldiers are arriving in Belarus by train in large numbers. After the attack on the Crimean bridge, Lukashenko announced the deployment of a “joint military force” with Moscow.

Putin and Lukashenko announce formation of joint forces PHOTO EPA-EFE

The announcement by a Putin ally came as the country’s intelligence chief said a “turning point” in Vladimir Putin’s invasion could come in the coming months.

Belarus news agency BelTA reported on Tuesday the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus “Inspection of the Armed Forces of Belarus has begun in accordance with the instructions of the Head of State”, Thus, the Daily Mail writes that Russian rhetoric prior to the invasion of Ukraine was conducting military exercises on the border.

The test is comprehensive and covers the most important aspects of preparing military units to perform their missions.”BelTA said the units will practice “transition to combat readiness” through marching exercises, deployment exercises and combat training missions.

The announcement raised fears that Belarusian troops could join the war with Russian forces seeking to seize and maintain control over territory in eastern Ukraine.

Russia brings drones to Belarus

Adding to these concerns, Ukrainian intelligence services on Tuesday said Russia continues to operate “kamikaze drones” in Belarus. Minsk also plans to send13 trains carrying ammunition from arsenals and storage sites of its armed forces”According to Kyiv Independent.

“As of October 10, Russia has delivered 31 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones to Belarus and plans to transfer eight more by October 14. Informs the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’, the quoted publication writes. Russia also used Iranian drones in large-scale airstrikes across Ukraine on Monday and Tuesday.

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A group of Belarusian troops stationed alongside Russian forces is a “purely defensive” group whose sole mission is to protect the borders of the former Soviet republic closely aligned with Russia, Minsk said on Tuesday.

What is Lukashenko hiding?

However, the language used to downplay Belarus’ military actions echoed Moscow’s insistence that it would not send troops across the border in the weeks and months before Putin’s February 24 invasion. In the same way, for example, in May 2021, the Minister of Defense, Sergei Řoigu, ordered a rapid review of the “combat readiness” of Russian military districts.

Putin has continued to deny that he has plans for an invasion, while Kremlin officials have said the tens of thousands of troops and equipment have been amassed only for military training. Months before Moscow began its military operation in Ukraine, Lukashenko allowed Russian troops into the country under the pretext of military exercises.

On Monday, Kyiv Post reporter Jason Jay Smart quoted a Belarusian source: “Russian soldiers enter Belarus by train. They travel in bullock carts – only they come in large numbers. Waves of trains are coming”.

Lukashenko said the joint task force with Russia was in response to a clear threat to Belarus from Kiev and its Western backers. He baselessly claimed that Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine were training Belarusian “extremists” to carry out terrorist attacks.

According to Lukashenko, the two countries began combining some of their military forces shortly after the explosion at the bridge over the Kerch Strait connecting Russian-occupied Crimea.

The Belarusian leader’s comments sparked outrage in Europe, with the European Commission urging Belarus to refrain from engaging in Russia’s “brutal and illegal enterprise” contrary to the United Nations Charter and principles of international law.

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G7 reaction

G7 leaders said Tuesday that Lukashenko’s plan to deploy joint forces with Russia was a new scenario of complicity with Moscow and warned Minsk to “stop promoting” Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

The announcement of a joint military group with Russia is the latest example of the Belarusian regime’s complicity with Russia.The G7 leaders stressed in a statement that “the Lukashenko regime must fully respect its obligations under international law.”

Minsk insisted the move was “purely defensive”: “We reiterate that the tasks of the Regional Group of Forces are purely defensive. All the activities undertaken at this time are aimed at providing an adequate response to activities near our borders. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Hrenin said.

“It won’t be about a thousand players”Lukashenko spoke during a meeting with his security apparatus in Minsk on Monday, according to the state-run Belta news agency, Bloomberg quoted.

Lukashenko said he and Vladimir Putin had decided to deploy troops after meeting last week in St Petersburg to discuss the “deteriorating” situation on Russia’s and Belarus’ western borders. War in Belarus.

Prediction of the Belarusian secret services

On Tuesday, the head of the Belarusian State Security Council (KGB) Ivan Tertel said Putin would see a “tipping point” in Russia’s support between November and February.

If the Russian Federation conducts a quality mobilization campaign and supplies its group with technical means and advanced weapons, the military operation will enter a critical phase. said Tertelus. “According to our estimates, a turning point will occur between November this year and February next year.”

In response to the growing threat, Ukraine has said it is strengthening its border with Belarus, fearing further Russian advances in the country’s north.

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Ukraine is fortifying its northern border

Active steps are being taken to strengthen the units of the MIA system [Ministerul Afacerilor Interne] From the borders of the Republic of BelarusUkraine’s Deputy Interior Minister Igor Bondarenko said Monday.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs added “[…] Bondarenko surveyed the territory on the state border of the Republic of Belarus. During the visit, the readiness of the units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs to prevent possible aggression from the territory of the Republic of Belarus was checked.

The ministry added, “We are actively engaged in the construction of structures, structural units are reinforced with fire elements, which significantly strengthens our defense lines.”

Alexander Alesin, an independent Belarusian military analyst, says Belarus could host 10,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers, who, along with its own army, could form a combined force of up to 60,000. But he says Minsk does not want to send troops to Ukraine.

The Kremlin, according to reports, wants its neighbor to host Russian nuclear weapons. “Missiles Iskander-M is already deployed in Belarus. They can be equipped with nuclear warheads with a capacity of 50 kilotons and a range of up to 500 kilometers. Alesin explained.

Some Belarusian Su-24M bombers were modified at Russian factories to carry nuclear bombs, the analyst said, but “Minsk specifically notes that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is possible only if (US) nuclear weapons are deployed in neighboring Poland.”.

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