The deployment of tens of thousands of troops in Russia’s northern, eastern and southern Ukraine has provoked fears in Moscow and the western capitals that Moscow is planning a new offensive. “The drums of war are beating hard,” said a senior U.S. ambassador. Quoted by Reuters.
Western military analysts have suggested that Russia could not stop such troops indefinitely for financial and logistical reasons and should withdraw them in the summer.
The number of Russian troops moved from 60,000 to about 100,000 near Ukraine, and the U.S. Secret Service document says that number could increase to 175,000.
On Friday, Euronews posted a video on Instagram showing the Russian military conducting training exercises 50 km from the Ukrainian border.
Ministry of Defense The Russian Federation released on Friday Video on the official website showing how the crew of the 150th Motorized Rifles Division in the Southern Military District conducted real shootings in the Rostov region.
“More than 2,500 soldiers from the Southern Army District participated in combat training events and deployed about 100 tanks.”, According to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
U.S. officials say Russia could attack Ukraine Starting this month, Facilitates rapid movement of tanks and other shields when the ground is rough.
One thing is possible “Blitzkrieg” was started by Russia in Ukraine This is commanded primarily based on how severe the winter will be in the coming days. Severe winters mean low temperatures that can lead to frost on the ground, which makes it much easier to move tanks, armored vehicles, trucks around and allow ground units to deploy faster.
Russian Defense Minister Restricts the foreign travel of the Russian military
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoi has ordered a ban on foreign travel and military leave due to the arrival of the Omigron corona virus variant in the Russian Federation. He announced this at the conference. According to a report by an independent news agency Of Mozambique, RBC.
“Temporarily reduce business trips and overseas vacations. Ensure the planned pace of re-vaccination of employees in accordance with approved programs,” Shoiku said.
However, Western sources say that restricting the foreign travel of Russian troops will be part of a wider mobilization to occupy Ukrainian territory.
Defeat of Diplomatic Ballet
During talks this week in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna with the United States and NATO, Russia sought security guarantees to defuse the crisis.
The U.S. aired on Thursday, After a meeting with Russia in the Organization for Security or Cooperation in Europe, its defense will act on European security demands from the West that they will not accept the demand to retain Moscow’s “blackmail” or its “spheres of influence”. Ensuring national security and strategic balance.
By the way, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Said Sergei Lavrov On Friday, he said Moscow was not ready to wait for the US and NATO’s response to the border expansion with Ukraine, and wanted a comprehensive written response to each Russian proposal put forward in this week’s talks.
What are the possible scenarios considered by Russia for the invasion of Ukraine?
Climbing from Donbass
Heavy-armed, pro-Russian separatists have been in control of eastern Ukraine since 2014 and continue firing with Ukrainian government forces.
According to Kiev officials, the Donbass conflict killed about 15,000 people. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular forces in the region, but Moscow denies it.
At the same time, Russia has accused Ukraine of forcing plans to restart the Kiev region, which Ukraine denies. In such a tense situation, the risk of misunderstanding or unplanned escalation is very high. Russia may use such an incident as “Casas Belly”. (The term for international law, which refers to the legal impetus for one state to launch a war against another).
A source familiar with the tactics of the Russian Ministry of Defense Sent to Reuters If Moscow decides to attack, this is the most likely scenario. Evidence suggests, however, that there was no official decision to attack the Donbass region. The Kiev attack could be challenged by separatists, the latter calling on Russia to send troops to help, Reuters source explained.
Neil Melvin, director of the Department of International Security Studies at the RUSI think tank in London, said Russian forces could escalate fighting in the Donbass to drag Ukraine into a routine confrontation. He said Moscow could try to capture the Ukrainian coast from the Sea of Azov by building a land bridge from the Russian city of Rostov to the Crimea via Donbass.
Melvin said such a situation would “put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainian government.”
Russia has mobilized new troops in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Ukraine in 2014.
Conrad Musika, director of the Rosen consulting firm from Poland, said that Moscow could launch an attack on Ukraine from the Crimea and could occupy territories up to the Dnieper River, which could act as a natural barrier against a Ukrainian counter-attack.
The operation could start with artillery, missile and air strikes on Ukrainian units in the south, and special forces could occupy bridges and railway junctions, allowing troops and tanks to advance, Muzyka said. There are only two roads in the Crimea that can be blocked or destroyed, which would be vulnerable in the event of a collision.
Attack on multiple nodes
A publicly available US Secret Service document states that Russia could launch an offensive this month with 100 battalion tactical units (BTGs) or about 175,000 troops. The United States says about 50 BTGs have already been mobilized in northern and eastern Ukraine and southern Crimea.
Melvin said the capture of southern Ukraine could sever Kiev’s ties with the coast and NATO’s presence in the Black Sea. Such a move would be an option for Russian nationalists, who consider the area to be part of Moscow’s historic landscape.
An attack on several fronts also involved the transfer of troops to northeastern Ukraine. Here Ukrainian security forces are likely to be thwarted in urban fighting.
Russian troops could move to Belarus and open a northern front against Ukraine, which would bring Russian forces closer to Kiev, said Khair Giles, a Saddam House co-chair.
“Of course, this strategy will be very expensive economically, politically and in terms of human lives, which is why the Kremlin is so cheap,” said Professor Neil Melvin.
Military analysts say that even if it captures half of the Ukrainian army, Russia will face guerrilla opposition, which will make it difficult to maintain the occupied territory.
Launching rockets or cyber attacks
Political analyst Khair Giles said there may be some footage of long-range missile strikes or cyber-attacks targeting Ukraine’s vital infrastructure. Missile strikes will take advantage of Ukraine’s weak missile defense.
In fact, the websites of the Ukrainian government were the target of a “massive cyber attack” on Thursday evening. The attack had a warning message: “Expect fear and worse.” Ukrainian authorities have launched an investigation.
The attack targeted the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the government and the country’s National Security and Security Council.
“Ukrainians! All your personal data has been uploaded to the public network. All computer data has been erased and it is impossible to recover it,” reads a message written in Ukrainian, Polish and Russian, which appeared on the shared websites of the targeted Ukrainian government agencies.
NATO wants to continue its dialogue with Russia
NATO Under-Secretary-General Mircea Geoana told Digi24.ro that she would like to continue its dialogue with the Russian Federation to ease the situation on the border with Ukraine. However, a NATO official acknowledged that “we are facing the most critical security moment for Europe in 30 years.”
“Today the Russian Federation’s aggression around Ukraine, the illegal annexation of Crimea a few years ago, the Russian Federation’s malicious actions in the field of cybernetics, hybrid, misinformation, but it is very unusual and the mobilization of dangerous troops around Ukraine will create a record for the next 30 years. We say things by name that we face more complex security, “said Mircia Giona.
He also stressed that NATO did not see the danger to the security of its allies. “But Ukraine, which is not a NATO ally, is a very important partner, and today it is under serious threat and cannot accept the threat of military intervention,” he said.
Russia is concentrating its forces on bases in the Far East
In the midst of this difficult environment and a tumultuous diplomatic week, Moscow on Friday announced a surprise inspection of its troops’ war readiness in the Far East and said they would be mobilizing on military bases far from Russia for training.
Video footage of the Ministry of Defense released by the RIA Novosti news agency shows a large number of armored vehicles and other military equipment loaded on trains in the Eastern Military District.
“These exercises will assess the readiness of troops to carry out necessary tasks after long-distance reconstruction in Russian territory,” the Ministry of Defense explained.
Open source investigators have been looking at pictures of heavy Russian military equipment, including trains, on social media for weeks.
Rob Lee, a military analyst and a member of the US Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: “This is largely a cover for moving units to Ukraine.
Russia has said it is free to deploy its forces and that there are no threats from outside.
Also read: “We are ready for any situation” in the conflict with Russia. The United States is determined to retaliate against any aggression if negotiations fail
Author: Marco Padeo