Some analysts believe that the four-year market cycle is changing and that the halving timeline may not define cyclical conditions as Bitcoin approaches the mid-point between halvings.
Halving is when the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) rewards issued for each new block that is mined is halved. The next halving will occur on May 5, 2024, and will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC.
According to author @Allerzio on Santiment Articles On April 4, “The important resistance on the road is $50K.” The blog stated that a break of this level by or around the middle of the next halving on April 11th would cast many doubts about the possibility of breaking the traditional market cycle.
“If the price settles above this level, we can give more credence to the thesis that: ‘This cycle is different from the others. ”
However, with only a few days left, the bitcoin price is currently down about 3.31% in the past 24 hours and about 6.51% for the week. It trades at $43,528 according to Cointelegraph data.
Bitcoin has gone through four halvings so far, all of which have experienced a similar series of three events over the course of four years as described by Santiment. The difference from that cycle seems to have begun:
“In my opinion history will not happen exactly the same way it did before.”
Santiment showed that after each halving, traditionally, a bull market dominated as price began to increase along with network activity, followed by a dramatic price peak leading to an all-time high (ATH). This pattern happened from Latest May 2020 halved to November 2021 ATH.
However, an extended bear market usually comes during the next halving halving. Santiment notes that the market is now pointing to a possible end to this four-year cycle as the network is now nearing the middle of the halving, but there is no clear extended bear market yet.
Onchain Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo made a related note. On March 20, he tweeted a follow-up to his October 2021 analysis in which he said that while previous market cycles had been expected, we may now have “no more 4 year cycles.”
We are probably seeing the first signs of the “last cycle” thesis emerging. 3 relatively short bull and bear markets have appeared since the 2019 bottom already.
That is, there are no 4-year courses. https://t.co/N3VzlKx2IA
– Willy Woo (woonomic) March 20 2022
He also noted the bear markets and the shorter rally that has occurred since 2019 without a peak trough.
Wu thought The unexpected new cycle It will be dominated by a complex interaction between supply and demand, which may have already started according to Santiment’s findings which indicate that network activity increased at a much higher rate than the last half in 2018. High network activity indicates high demand.
Philip Swift, founder of Bitcoin data provider Look Into Bitcoin, believes that the four-year cycle has not only been broken, but that it has “gone for a while.” on March 20 tweet In response to Woo, he said we have “another cycle before BTC moves into a new growth phase…”